Gatorade Duels: Who's in and who's not in the Daytona 500?

Autoracing Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Thursday, February 23. Race: Gatorade Duel twin-qualifying races. Site: Daytona International Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 60 (each race). Miles: 150. 2011 Winners: Kurt Busch (race 1). Jeff Burton (race 2). Television: SPEED. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

Thursday's Gatorade Duel at Daytona -- the twin 150-mile qualifying races -- will set the starting field for the Daytona 500. With 49 teams entered in "The Great American Race," six of them will not make it into Sunday's big show.

Last weekend in Daytona 500 time trials, Carl Edwards won the pole, while his teammate, Greg Biffle, secured the outside pole to give Roush Fenway Racing and Ford the front starting row. These are the only drivers who have locked down their starting positions in the 500-mile race. Edwards will lead a field of 25 cars to the green flag in the first qualifying race. Biffle will start first in the 24-car field for the second event.

The top 35 in last year's owner points are guaranteed a starting spot in the Daytona 500. Three drivers -- David Stremme, Tony Raines and last year's race winner, Trevor Bayne -- finished outside the top 35 last season, but they are warranted a position in the Daytona 500 based on their qualifying speeds. Terry Labonte, the 1984 and 1996 Cup champion, also is assured a spot if he has to use a champion's provisional.

Therefore, 10 drivers will vie for the four final positions in the Daytona 500.

Michael Waltrip, Michael McDowell, Mike Wallace and Robby Gordon will attempt to make it into the Daytona 500 when they compete in the first qualifying race. Waltrip has competed in the Daytona 500 each year since 1987 (25 consecutive races). He won it in 2001 and '03.

Kenny Wallace, Dave Blaney, Joe Nemechek, Bill Elliott, Robert Richardson Jr. and J.J. Yeley will try to race their way in during the second qualifying event. If Labonte races his way into the Daytona 500 during the qualifiers, then Elliott, the 1988 series champion, is assured a starting spot with at least the champion's provisional.

Elliott has 28 Daytona 500 starts to his credit.

The odd-number starting positions for the Daytona 500 will be based on the finishing order of the first qualifying race, and the even-number starting spots will be determined by the outcome of the final qualifier.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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